Time to stop polling and start listening: why we got election so wrong | OPINION ausvotes2019 auspol
Over the past decade-plus, the polling industry has had to make a transition from plucking names from the the electoral rolls and contacting voters on fixed landlines, via which they could be certain where they lived, to a relative stab in the dark. Now they reach voters via mobile phones and sometimes even online, with a consequent decline in the confidence they can have in the sample – particularly in electorates with diverse voters.
Not only is it a clear sign that we need to find new ways to do political research, it points towards some important shifts in public sentiment, which I have to say I underestimated. Labor's big, ambitious and optimistic policy agenda didn't shift hearts and minds sufficiently in all the right places. That could point to the fact that there may be no agenda – conservative or progressive – that can play well enough across the nation to achieve a result akin to 2007. National landslides may well be a thing of the past in a nation that looks as fractured as the national vote seems to indicate.
I get it. My mum's family comes from northern Queensland and, say what you want about them, they are fiercely independent. They will resist change that doesn't come from within their own community.
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