Treasury underestimated coronavirus and the economy is going to take a bigger hit than we thought

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Treasury underestimated coronavirus and the economy is going to take a bigger hit than we thought
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The coronavirus pandemic has overwhelmed Australian policymaking in recent weeks.

Documents obtained under freedom of information by ABC News show how quickly the coronavirus pandemic has overwhelmed Australian policymaking in recent weeks.

The spread of coronavirus across Australia could see unemployment reach about 10 per cent and house prices drop 20 per cent, says one economist. The documents show that by the end of February, Treasury's best estimate of the impact of the yet-to-be-declared pandemic on Australia's economy was that it was going to shave 0.5 percentage points off GDP growth in the March quarter, and the economy would rebound"in subsequent quarters".

Treasury officials were still informing Treasurer Josh Frydenberg that the coronavirus impact wouldn't be too big, though they emphasised their estimates were uncertain. "On current information the Treasury advise me that the coronavirus could detract around half a percentage point from growth in the March quarter, and that some bounce-back in growth is expected in subsequent quarters," said a draft statement prepared for Treasurer Josh Frydenberg by an unnamed official.How the lower growth forecast rapidly shifted

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