Two big shocks sparked by the war in Ukraine will shape financial markets, commodities and the global economy for decades. But equity investors seem sanguine.
helped confirm two of the key ways this will play out across global economies and financial markets.
The second major trend was best illustrated by Summit sessions with Prime Minister Scott Morrison andThe pair made it clear Australia would need to become more self-reliant. This will include sharply increasing defence spending, but also building stronger manufacturing capability at home and shortening supply chains by pulling back from the globalised just-in-time world we knew before the pandemic.
The ramifications of this sort of shock are difficult to quantify. As Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar has argued, there is some potential for the turmoil on commodity markets to spill over into the broader financial markets if, as we’ve seen in nickel this week, the use of derivatives leads to margin calls that can’t be met and sudden issues of liquidity.
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