The world's richest man is flexing some very early polling numbers, but experts have been quick to knock him back to Earth.
has issued a series of political predictions this week, based on strong Republican showings in early voting turnout data that former presidentBut voting experts say that because of gaps in the data, this isn't a statistically sound method to game out election winners – and could sow confusion and doubts about the eventual results when ballots are counted.Elon Musk and former first lady Melania Trump at the rally in New York earlier this week.
Like many political observers, including at CNN, Musk has noticed the better-than-2020 GOP performance in early voting in North Carolina, Nevada and other key states. "Early voting totals don't tell us anything about who's winning, and people should be extremely wary of claims that one side, or the other, is pulling away with this race," Becker said.
Registered Republicans make up about 32 per cent of the early vote in Pennsylvania so far, up from 21 per cent at this point in 2020. Democrats made up 68 per cent of the preelection vote at this point in 2020; so far this year they account for 58 per cent. This data comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and non-profit advocacy groups.
Ginsberg, a CNN contributor, said the "irresponsibility on both sides of the aisle" around early voting turnout data certainly "feeds" potential post-election distrust in the results.
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