Opinion: COVID-19 will spread over the next few months, but the major consequences of infection (deaths and serious disease leading to hospitalisation) are already markedly reduced compared with a year ago
NSW is scaling back its COVID-19 restrictions today. Masks will only be required on public transport and planes, at airports, and for indoors front-of-house hospitality staff who are not fully vaccinated. There will be no density limits in gyms and hospitality venues.
Will COVID-19 spread over the next few months? Yes, it will. But the major consequences of infection are already markedly reduced compared with a year ago. Relatively serious complication rates should continue to fall as even more people get vaccinated and then get their five-month boosters. The rapid recent rise in Britain is because winter has arrived. A rise should not have been unexpected. Despite the spike in UK cases since July, there has been no similar steep increases in the number of deaths associated with COVID-19, again showing the benefits of vaccination. We also need to remember that worldwide, the vast majority of people in hospitals, in ICUs, and who die, are disproportionately those who are unvaccinated.
To decrease your own risk, be outdoors as much as possible . Make sure anyone with respiratory symptoms gets tested, and minimise any close contact with them. Avoid crowded indoor events as much as possible. But we all need to interact with others for work and to socialise, so we need to be practical about how and when we implement these personal restrictions.
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