Why it’s impossible to say if the worst of the pandemic is over

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Why it’s impossible to say if the worst of the pandemic is over
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Epidemiologists are increasingly confident that Australia has passed the peak of the winter Omicron wave, but say it is foolish to try to predict the evolution of the virus. Omicron covid19

There is no evidence that the worst of COVID has passed, Australian virologists say, tempering hopes that the peak of the Omicron wave marked the beginning of the end for the pandemic.

The daily case count has almost halved within two weeks, dropping from almost 50,000 on July 27 to 27,058 on Wednesday.In NSW, hospitalisations have plateaued, and the rate of COVID-19 notifications per 100,000 people has either decreased or remained stable across all NSW local health districts and all age groups except those aged 10-19, due to students returning to school after the winter holidays.

Associate Professor Stuart Turville, the lead virologist at the Kirby Institute laboratory that is sequencing Omicron variants, echoed Holmes’ reticence to divine the trajectory of the pandemic.But he outlined two probable scenarios for the next year of the pandemic.

Associate Professor Ian Mackay, a virologist at the University of Queensland, said all signs were pointing to the worst of the pandemic being behind us, “but we won’t know for certain until we can look back in several months’ time and say, ‘Oh, that was the peak.’ ”

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