There's been a lot of soul searching after opinion polls failed to predict Morrison's 2019 win, but the big question remains: will the polls be closer to the mark this time around?
into the national polls, commissioned by the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations .
"Whereas the headwinds and clues from overseas polling failures in the UK and US in particular, suggested that traditional methodologies that pollsters were using for their surveys needed updating." Of the five national pollsters last election, all under-estimated the actual primary vote for the Coalition by at least 2.4 percentage points, with an average "bias" of 2.8 percentage points.
The difference between each polls' finding in the dots and an estimate of Labor's true support in the shaded section. "They're always going to be a little bit more politically engaged, a little bit more partisan, a little bit more ideological than your average neighbour or family member." Many pollsters — including Essential and Newspoll — are now ensuring they weight their samples based on education level, but not all pollsters disclose their weighting variables.The horse race
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