The risk of inadvertent escalation in the Middle East is a growing concern for Western policymakers. The recent Gaza conflict has highlighted the potential for a wider war in the region. Iran has issued a threat, stating that Israel's actions in Gaza are pushing them closer to their threshold. The Biden administration sees this as the central challenge in the crisis.
Historians are fascinated by the outbreak of World War I. How could the assassination of an Austrian archduke in Sarajevo in June 1914 have led, just a few weeks later, to a conflict that dragged in every major power in Europe, and eventually the US?
Over the weekend, Iran issued a clear threat that its own threshold is getting closer. Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s president, took to X to state that Israel’s actions in Gaza haveHe added: “Washington asks us to not do anything, but they keep giving widespread support to Israel.” But if Hezbollah is in danger of destruction, Iran could send in troops from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to fight alongside its ally. At that point, Israel might decide to strike the IRGC in Iran, as well as in Lebanon.Other Iranian proxies around the region would also probably respond to a war involving Hezbollah, by stepping up their attacks on Israeli and American targets.
A conflict that unfolded in this way would be a disaster for every one of the participants – and they all know it. It could happen nonetheless because all sides also believe that there are certain events that it would be very dangerous for them not to respond to.
Middle East Escalation Gaza Conflict Wider War Iran Israel Biden Administration
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