The ABC has asked a mathematician to explain how using statistics can form a narrative that may not show the full story.
Australian news outlets and politicians have repeatedly claimed the country is in the grip of the worst youth crime wave in history.in every state and territory in Australia to near record lows.ABC Radio Brisbane: Kenji SatoUniversity of Queensland mathematician Matthew Sutton said statistics could easily be misused to draw false conclusions.
ABC Brisbane asked statisticians and criminologists to explain the common ways in which data can be used or skewed to misrepresent youth crime data.The Courier Mail has claimed that Queensland's youth crime rates have skyrocketed to crisis levels., its cites Australian Bureau of Statistics data that shows in 2022-23 Queensland's youth offender rate per 100,000 increased from 1,863 to 1,925 in 12 months.
However, the ABC failed to provide the caveat that the increase came off the back of historic lows for the region post-lockdown. "If we focus on absolute numbers it's giving us an incorrect picture of what's happening," Dr Zahnow said.Renee Zahnow says crime rates are a far better metric for gauging how safe a community is.She said crime rates were the best way to compare crime between time periods and geographical areas, since they controlled for population when numbers did not.
Those crimes include assault, threat of assault, sexual assault, and other offences directly against a person. That pales in comparison to October 2021, when a single drug bust caused Mundubbera's crime rate to increase 1,375 per cent in one month. While most categories of crime have fallen across Australia, notable exceptions include rape, domestic violence and sexual assault.However Professor Zahnow said the increased reports of domestic violence and sexual assault were likely caused by increased awareness, reporting and enforcement.
Photo shows Two young people sit on the ground in handcuffs while a third is laying down while being arrested. Police stand nearby.
Courier Mail Lnp Matthew Sutton Andrew Hickey University Of Queensland University Of Southern Queensland Crime Wave Youth Crime Crisis Media Reporting Statistics Data Misrepresented Queensland Election Qld Election Queensland Votes Qld Votes 9News
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