OPINION: The best available analysis implies China will attempt unification with Taiwan sooner rather than later.
About a month ago, one of our top geopolitical and military advisers – and far and away the most accurate forecaster on all matters China – called to say he had amended his views on the probability of the Middle Kingdom having a crack at that recalcitrant province, akaI was surprised because our panel of about seven global advisers had generally coalesced around the opinion that China needed another five to seven years to militarily prepare for unilateral unification...
Biden is all but an intellectual invalid and characterised by extreme indecision. It is highly unlikely that he would quickly resolve to wage a full-spectrum defence of Taiwan, and incur mass US casualties, without at least many days or weeks of discussion, debate and prevarication. Yet China is planning to secure Taiwan within 24-48 hours.
Within five to 10 years, the West may be able to successfully defend Taiwan should it be disposed to do so. But that is emphatically not the case today, which is why Xi must act if he is to deliver on the iconic objective of his presidential term.
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