RBA has trick up its sleeve that could avoid much higher rates

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RBA has trick up its sleeve that could avoid much higher rates
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The RBA might be tempted by this option if it feels it has to tighten monetary policy and not just rely on its overnight cash rate to do the heavy-lifting. auspol ausecon

It is well known that the incomplete pass-through of the RBA’s hikes to the average home loan rate on existing mortgages reflects the surge in fixed-rate lending as a result of the RBA providing banks with $189 billion of three-year loans during the pandemic at an incredibly low fixed cost of between 0.1 per cent and 0.25 per cent annually.

The RBA is fully aware of these discontinuities. It is ultimately targeting borrowing rates, and if lenders do not fully pass on its cash rate changes it will continue lifting rates until it secures the practical cost of capital that it wants to see prevailing across the economy.It does, however, have another trick up its sleeve.

Martin Place might be tempted by this option if it feels it has to tighten monetary policy on a more broad-based basis rather than just relying on its overnight cash rate to do the heavy lifting, which would be similar to the logic it applied during the pandemic. Where the numbers get much more interesting is if we instead focus on how the banks’ balance sheets have been growing over phe last few months. Among the four majors, loan growth has decelerated from an 11 per cent, three-month annualised pace in July last year to just 3 per cent in March this year.

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