Can Peter Dutton Win Back the Harbour?

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Can Peter Dutton Win Back the Harbour?
PoliticsAustralian PoliticsLiberal Party

The fate of the Liberal Party and Peter Dutton's leadership may hinge on reclaiming seats overlooking Sydney Harbour.

As Anthony Albanese welcomed the new year on the sloping lawns of Kirribilli House, he might have pondered how the Sydney Harbour foreshore could influence his political future in the coming months. It's difficult to envision a Liberal prime minister securing a parliamentary majority without a seat overlooking this picturesque expanse of water, a position the party no longer holds due to the teal wave in 2022.

Three Liberal prime ministers this century have resided in harbourside constituencies: Tony Abbott in Warringah, Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth, and John Howard in harbour-adjacent Bennelong. All these seats are now held by other parties. If this trend persists after the 2025 federal election, Albanese has a good chance of remaining prime minister, likely leading a minority government. Considering the teals emerged as a response to Scott Morrison's stance on climate change and the party's shift to the right, it's improbable they would support an opposition leader more conservative than his predecessor, particularly one who champions nuclear power as a central pillar of energy policy. Dutton hasn't entirely abandoned the harbour. He hopes his pro-Israel stance will garner support in Wentworth, which boasts the highest proportion of Jewish voters of any parliamentary division. This may also prove beneficial in another teal-held seat, Goldstein in Melbourne. However, the Liberal leader has shifted his focus, reorienting his party away from the nation's most affluent suburbs and even the upper echelons of society where many Liberal voters reside. Kooyong, Robert Menzies' former seat, currently held by Monique Ryan (teal), is no longer considered the spiritual home of the Liberal Party. I believe Trump's victory in November has emboldened Dutton rather than fundamentally altering his approach, encouraging him to reveal his true nature more openly

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